The impact of climatic variables on agricultural productivity in SADC : from 2003 to 2023

Abstract

Agriculture is important in Southern African Development Community (SADC) because it creates job opportunities in the sector, alleviate poverty and promotes economic growth. But climate change - with higher temperatures, altered rainfalls and increased greenhouse gas emissions - is a major risk to agricultural production. The study looks at the effect of climate change on agricultural production in some countries of the SADC and also explores the differences between the low income and high-income countries. The study is grounded in the Sustainable Livelihoods (SL) Framework which provide insights into how productive inputs, economic factors, climate conditions and institutions affect agricultural production. Secondary data for this period 2003-2023 was accessed from the World Development Indicators (WDI) and the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal. Crop Production Index was used to measure agricultural productivity. Precipitation, average temperature, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, fertilizer use, growth in urban population, government effectiveness, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth were considered as control variables. Climatic variables were considered to be: precipitation, average temperature, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, fertilizer use, growth in urban population, government effectiveness and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. GDP growth was added in as it brings more resources for investment in agriculture, such as irrigation, better technologies, research and infrastructure, to improve agricultural productivity. The study used the panel data estimation techniques such as the Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Fixed Effects (FE), and Random Effects (RE). The findings show that there are significant differences in the reaction of the income groups to climate change. The Fixed Effects model was determined to be the preferred estimator for low-income SADC countries. The results reveal that the growth of GDP, consumption of fertilizers, precipitation and CO2 emissions are significant positive drivers of agricultural productivity, whereas the average temperature and the government effectiveness play a significant negative role. Agricultural productivity is positively related, although not statistically significantly, to the growth of the urban population. The results indicate that, even with improved agricultural inputs and economic growth in low-income countries, they remain highly susceptible to climate variability, particularly climate warming. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was included as a control variable because stronger economic growth provides greater resources for investment in agricultural infrastructure, technology, irrigation, and research, all of which can influence agricultural productivity. Considering the selected model, for high-income SADC countries, only average temperature is statistically significant and negatively associated with agricultural productivity. Precipitation, fertilizer use, government effectiveness, urban population growth, CO2 emissions, and GDP growth exhibit the expected relationships; however, most of these variables are not statistically significant. This implies that high-income nations are more resilient to climate shocks because of their higher adaptive capacity, better institutions, and higher level of agricultural technologies. Overall, the results confirm the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, which indicate that climate, productive inputs, economic growth and institutional quality influence agricultural productivity. The study suggests the increased investment in Climate-Smart Agriculture, irrigation infrastructure, agricultural research, sustainable management of fertilizers, economic development and institutional strengthening for improved resilience, sustainable agricultural development and productivity within the SADC region.