Jokowi's endorsement effect : Prabowo - Gibran victory and PSI failure in 2024

Abstract

This study examines the Jokowi's Endorsement effect in Indonesia's 2024 Simultaneous Elections. The extraordinary popularity of Incumbent President Joko Widodo's (Jokowi), helped secure victory for the Prabowo-Gibran presidential arena, but failed to propel the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) as party most closely associated with him tobe above the parliamentary threshold. Using Exit Poll data collected by Politika Research & Consulting (PRC) on Election Day from 2,366 respondents at 1,200 polling stations across all 38 provinces, this study tests three hypotheses using binary logistic regression, with the level of satisfaction with Jokowi's performance as the primary independent variable. The study's findings confirm all three hypotheses. First, the approval rating for Jokowi has a strong, positive, and significant effect on the probability of voting for the Prabowo-Gibran ticket (B = 0.830; Exp(B) = 2.294; p < 0.001), meaning the likelihood of supporting that ticket more than doubles for every one-point increase in the approval rating. Second, the same approval rating had no significant effect on the probability of voting for PSI (B = 0.317; p = 0.355), indicating that symbolic proximity through the "Jokowism" branding and the appointment of Kaesang Pangarep as party chairman were not sufficient to translate Jokowi's popularity into votes. Third, the approval rating for Jokowi significantly increases the probability of voting for the parties empirically identified as closest to him through delta analysis, namely Gerindra and PDI-P (B = 0.464; Exp(B) = 1.591; p < 0.001). Overall, this study concludes that incumbent Jokowi's lead is personal, not partisan. It can decisively shape the presidential race and strengthen the parties that voters genuinely associate with him, but it does not automatically extend to every party that claims his name.