Beyond infrastructure : authoritarian diffusion and governance transformation under China's Belt and Road Initiative in Kenya and Ethiopia 2000-2025

Abstract

This study examines how China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has influenced governance transformation and the potential diffusion of authoritarian governance practices in Kenya and Ethiopia between 2000 and 2025. Rooted in Authoritarian Diffusion Theory and Governance Transformation Theory, it aims to examine whether Chinese development cooperation under the BRI asserts executive authority or facilitates institutional adaptation. The research relies on a qualitative comparative study and examines documentary evidence from government policy documents, as well as reports from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and other international reports like AidData (2021) and the China-Africa Research Initiative (CAI, 2021). The results show that BRI participation has significantly altered the governance framework in these two countries, albeit in different ways and in different forms of institutions. In Ethiopia, extensive Chinese financing, estimated at USD 13.7 billion, was channeled through state-owned enterprises and incorporated into the Growth and Transformation Plans. This setup strengthened the over-centralization of power, encasement of power into a hierarchical structure, and the implementation of digital surveillance capabilities with Huawei and ZTE. The Ethiopian State exemplifies authoritarian diffusion on the basis of developmental centralization. Kenya, on the other other hand, managed BRI-related projects under constitutional protocols and the Public Finance Management Act (2012) as they secured about USD 10.8 billion from China. Parliamentary oversight, debt disclosure reforms, and the Data Protection Act (2019) ensured foreign engagement produced a hybrid governance transformation, providing an efficiency gained that was not in contradiction with accountability. Overall, both cases show that the political impacts of the BRI are mediational and conditional as a result of domestic institutional arrangements. While there was a centralized system in Ethiopia that absorbed authoritarianism, there was a pluralistic version in Kenya that absorbed these influences into the relatively clear, well-regulated movements of the local version. Based on this research, it was confirmed that the BRI, rather than being a formal importation of authoritarianism is a process of transnational governance diffusion. Its ultimate effects and results rely on the capacity and independence of local institutions. The policy recommendations include linking fiscal accountability to digital accountability in Africa and urge China to increase the transparency of development cooperation, as well as to harmonize standards for the multilateral lenders. Overall, the study helps the debates on China-Africa development partnership and global governance transformation, showing that external development partnerships have the capacity of changing the states' power in Africa by engaging in context specific institutional interaction, which can reinforce accountable governance or deepen authoritarianism.